Memo

Be kept up to date with our latest memos

Memo Weekly market comment

High and low arise by contrast, long and short are co-configured, sound and silence make the music, before and after follow from each other ― Lao Tzu

Antiloop Market comment

When strong economic data becomes a bad omen for financial markets

ANTILOOP Market comment

“A hog in a silk waistcoat is still a hog.”

ANTILOOP Market comment

Long-term capitulation for short-term gains

No strategy - and no level of brilliance - will make every quarter or every year a successful one. - Howard Marks

How Argentina's volatile economy is affecting global food supply

ANTILOOP Market comment

No such thing as a perfect hedge

ANTILOOP Market comment

Procrastinated risk is knocking on the door

Consumer Price Index rose 8.6 percent in the United States in May, marking a 40-year high. As consensus said we had reached peak inflation in March and CPI was estimated to come in at 8.3 percent, the unexpected elevation caught markets by surprise, and...

Strong labor markets signals faster tightening

ANTILOOP Market comment

Classic bear market rally?

ANTILOOP Market comment

Wheat outlook

ANTILOOP Market comment

The debt is due

Suppose 2020 will be remembered as the year of post-over-a-decade-of-quantitative-easing with Covid-19 as the finale where global central banks simultaneously did their best to inflate financial markets with trillions and trillions of dollars, calling...

“Green” energy

When I started to write this memo, the uranium spot price was trading around 31 USD/Lbs. Since then, the price has soared over 40 percent in just a few weeks. But why is this? And will future demand for uranium continue to go up as the world tries to...

Dawn of the supercycle

In the last couple of years, commodities have been somewhat of a widowmaker trade as traders and investors have tried to call the bottom since the last top in 2011. But now it seems tables have turned in favor of real assets.

Time: The perfect deflationary asset

I promised myself not to write yet another memo about monetary policy. Then I landed in Argentina - the Mecca of inflation - and it suddenly became clear to me that the USD is heading in the way of the ARS, and I could not help myself.

Cash for klunkers in psychedelic times

Humanity has never had it better. Technological advances are making just about everything faster, cheaper, better and with less environmental impact. The year 2020 was the best year in history for mankind, possibly with the exception of 2019. Sure, real...

The final fiat experiment

I recently read “The Deficit Myth” by Stephanie Kelton, the leftist “rockstar” economist that I saw someone calling her. And I get it, as a Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) advocate she is getting a lot of points for promising a future where states could...

The forgotten asset class

In 1970-1971, there was a massive oversupply in commodities, leaving investors surprised when widespread commodity prices only a couple of years later more than doubled, and in some cases rose as much as five times. Shortly thereafter, in 1974-75, prices...

Inflation revisited

I have come to find that there is an eager appetite to misunderstand the concept of inflation; not only the original definition but also the consequences that follow. The reason behind the misconceptions of inflation has as much to do with it being a...

Inflation or deflation: yes

Mark Twain’s quote, “History does not repeat itself but it often rhymes” has been used more than once to compare different economic cycles. First, asset prices soar, leading investors to believe that we have entered a new market paradigm. That fundamentals...